FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Larry
LOCATED
545 MI WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
75 MPH
PRESSURE
987 MB
MOVING
W AT 20 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021
Larry becomes a hurricane over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 32.3 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the west northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Friday and Friday night. A slightly slower west northwestward motion is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 32.3 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the west northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Friday and Friday night. A slightly slower west northwestward motion is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Larry's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized, with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center and a banding-type eye trying to form. Upper-level outflow is most prominent over the western and northern portions of the circulation. A well-defined low-level eye was apparent on an AMSR-2 image from a few hours ago. Dvorak final T- and Current Intensity-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0/4.0, corresponding to an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these estimates, Larry is upgraded to a hurricane, the fifth of the 2021 Atlantic season.

The hurricane is moving just slightly north of west, or 280/17 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory. Larry is likely to move along the southern and southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical high pressure area over the east-central Atlantic during the next few days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours. A turn toward the northwest is likely in 4-5 days as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track models are fairly well clustered on this future direction of motion with some differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

Larry is expected to remain in an environment conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with marginally warm SSTs, low vertical shear, and surrounded by broad-scale anticyclonic upper-level flow. Therefore, strengthening is likely, and the official forecast calls for Larry to become a major hurricane in 48 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacements are possible around and after that time. Late in the forecast period, slightly drier air in the environment could limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Larry's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized, with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center and a banding-type eye trying to form. Upper-level outflow is most prominent over the western and northern portions of the circulation. A well-defined low-level eye was apparent on an AMSR-2 image from a few hours ago. Dvorak final T- and Current Intensity-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0/4.0, corresponding to an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these estimates, Larry is upgraded to a hurricane, the fifth of the 2021 Atlantic season.

The hurricane is moving just slightly north of west, or 280/17 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory. Larry is likely to move along the southern and southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical high pressure area over the east-central Atlantic during the next few days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours. A turn toward the northwest is likely in 4-5 days as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track models are fairly well clustered on this future direction of motion with some differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

Larry is expected to remain in an environment conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with marginally warm SSTs, low vertical shear, and surrounded by broad-scale anticyclonic upper-level flow. Therefore, strengthening is likely, and the official forecast calls for Larry to become a major hurricane in 48 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacements are possible around and after that time. Late in the forecast period, slightly drier air in the environment could limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

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