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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Lorenzo
LOCATED
1315
WINDS
145 MPH
PRESSURE
938 MB
MOVING
NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 , 2019
INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO, WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
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DISCUSSION

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial intensity is now 125 kt.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of runs. However, there remains significant spread between the operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by 96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and 50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation.

Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial intensity is now 125 kt.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of runs. However, there remains significant spread between the operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by 96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and 50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation.

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