1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.
2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.
2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 44.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane throughout that time.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 44.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane throughout that time.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948 mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft.
Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours, and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory.
The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so, extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is near the various multimodel consensus aids.
The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948 mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft.
Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours, and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory.
The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so, extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is near the various multimodel consensus aids.
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