1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next few days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Azores, and Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings could be required later today for those islands.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 43.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has generally changed little during the last several hours. The hurricane continues to maintain a well-defined inner core with a ragged cloud-filled eye. The outer bands are well established to the north and east of the center, but are restricted on the south side of the circulation due to some southwesterly shear and drier air being wrapped into that portion of the cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is set at 90 kt based on T5.0/90 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 11 kt through a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The models generally agree that Lorenzo should pick up forward speed and move northeastward during the next day or two as a trough amplifies over the central Atlantic. This flow should take the core of Lorenzo near or to the west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. After that time, the spread in the guidance increases with several of the models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON showing Lorenzo turning north-northeastward or northward as it moves around the east side of a large extratropical low. The new ECMWF run has shifted closer to the GFS/HWRF/HMON solutions, but it still is considerably to the east of those models as it shows less interaction with the extratropical low. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Although the spread in the models is not as large as it was yesterday, the forecast beyond 48 hours is still of low confidence given the uncertainty in the longer-term steering flow.

The intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward than the track forecast. The bulk of the guidance shows the hurricane maintaining its intensity or weakening slightly during the next day or two while it remains over relatively warm waters and in moderate wind shear conditions. It seems likely that Lorenzo will be a significant hurricane when it passes near the Azores in about 2 days. After that time, more notable weakening should occur due to a significant drop off in SSTs, drier air, and much stronger shear. In fact, these conditions should ultimately lead to extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete by 72 hours. Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 5 following the global model guidance.