1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores.
2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores.
2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
WHAT'S NEW:
The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
WHAT'S NEW:
The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.
Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.
Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours, but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies in between these two scenarios.
Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the consensus aids.
Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours, but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies in between these two scenarios.
Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the consensus aids.
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