1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday.

Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum central pressure of 957 mb.

Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72 hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The official forecast track is just a little to the right of the previous one and lies near the consensus aids.

The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that time.