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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Lorenzo
LOCATED
840
WINDS
105 MPH
PRESSURE
956 MB
MOVING
NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 , 2019
LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE,
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores.

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

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