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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Lorenzo
LOCATED
630
WINDS
100 MPH
PRESSURE
962 MB
MOVING
NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 , 2019
LORENZO HAS WINDS NEAR 100 MPH, EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW,
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
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DISCUSSION

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores.

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 39.7 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 39.7 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48 hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the cyclone should dissipate over Europe.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough. There is still significant track model divergence around this time, and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance envelope.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48 hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the cyclone should dissipate over Europe.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough. There is still significant track model divergence around this time, and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance envelope.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

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