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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Lorenzo
LOCATED
470
WINDS
100 MPH
PRESSURE
962 MB
MOVING
NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 , 2019
LORENZO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AZORES, EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW,
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 37.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 37.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

The eye of Lorenzo, while still evident in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is foreast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days.

Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model.

Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

The eye of Lorenzo, while still evident in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is foreast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days.

Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model.

Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2

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