1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning within the next couple of hours, with those dangerous conditions continuing into Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. Seek shelter immediately.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are already occuring across the western and central Azores. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 32.7 West. Lorenzo is accelerating and is now moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. A 10-minute average wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was reported at Horta on Faial island in the central Azores.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 960 mb (28.35 inches) based on data from a nearby NOAA drifting buoy, which reported a pressure of 961.5 mb around 0200 UTC.

Lorenzo's convective cloud pattern has eroded significantly during the past 6 hours, with an eye no longer evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, a ragged remnant eye feature is still present in passive microwave imagery, and that data indicates that the mid- and upper-level circulations are tilted about 15-20 nmi northeast of the low-level center due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates have also decreased and now support around 75 kt. However, the intensity is being maintained at 85 kt due to Lorenzo's faster forward speed, which is now about 10 kt more than it was on the previous advisory, offsetting the possible decrease in the tangential winds. The 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had to once again be expanded in nearly every quadrant, but especially to the southeast, based on a 2305 UTC ASCAT-B overpass. The larger wind field is now expected to result in sustained hurricane-force winds occurring across portions of the western and central Azores on Wednesday morning.

Despite the hurricane's extremely large size, Lorenzo has continued to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/35 kt. Lorenzo's forward speed should gradually level off near 40 kt on Wednesday, and then gradually begin to decrease by Thursday morning when the cyclone turns more eastward toward Ireland. By late Thursday, post-tropical Lorenzo is forecast to turn east-southeastward, crossing Ireland and southern England. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were required, and new advisory lies close to an average of the various consensus model forecast tracks.

Lorenzo is currently moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 24 deg C, and that isn't taking into account any cold upwelling that is likely occurring beneath the very large hurricane. With only colder water ahead of the cyclone, coupled with vertical shear increasing to more than 40 kt by 12 hours, rapid transition to a powerful post-tropical/extratropical cyclone is expected shortly after Lorenzo passes the Azores. However, only gradual weakening is foreast during the next 24 hours due to baroclinic interaction with an upper-level trough and frontal system. After that time, a more rapid rate of weakening is expected when Lorenzo will be moving over Ireland and England.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2