1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect and residents should follow any advice given by local officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
- East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...913 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...711 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...69 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...46 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...35 ft Galveston Bay...35 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...35 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...24 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less.

United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the westcentral U.S. Gulf Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to northnorthwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data, Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt.The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance. However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic States.The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall, although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the storm becomes extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of thetrack or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 his around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards willextend far from the center.