1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to

3. miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion this evening, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.3. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with small streams overflowing their banks will increase due to heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also result in minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large anddangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from SanLuis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, includingareas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.This surge could penetrate up to

3. miles inland from the immediatecoastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warningarea from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occursomewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespreaddamaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland intoportions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
- East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...913 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...711 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...69 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...46 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...35 ft Galveston Bay...35 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...24 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 89.0 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to northnorthwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

Satellite imagery shows some changes in the convective pattern of Laura since the last advisory. The ragged central dense overcast seen earlier has been replaced by a curved convective band that wraps almost all the way around a cloud-filled banding-type eve. One possible reason for this change is that the imagery also suggests a tongue of dry air is trying to entrain into the cyclone just west of the central convection. Aircraft data received after the last advisory did not show any fall in the central pressure, but did have high enough flight-level and SFMR winds to justify nudging the initial intensity up to 70 kt.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/15 kt. There is no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward this evening, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h, but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later advisories. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic States before reaching the Atlantic in about 120 h.

All indications are that the hurricane should steadily to rapidly intensify during the next 24 h, with the only negative factor being the possibility of more dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast will go with the scenario that the dry air will not significantly hinder strengthening. The global models are in good agreement that Laura will encounter increasing southwesterly shear in the last 6-12 h before landfall, so the intensity forecast shows slower strengthening during that time. With all that said, the landfall intensity of 100 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point, followed by re-intensification through baroclinic energy as the cyclone becomes extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.

Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satelliteimages, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of thecirculation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud topsof -80C or colder. The upper-level outflow is becoming betterestablished over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level andSFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force HurricaneHunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased tonear 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling. The hurricane isexpected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast,with only moderate vertical shear. The SHIPS Rapid IntensificationIndex shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase instrength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in theofficial forecast. This is also between the simple and correctedintensity model consensus predictions. Laura will weaken rapidlyafter landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds wellinland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestwardtrack with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt. The trackforecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should graduallyturn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as itmoves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into aweakness into the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast periodthe cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move withincreasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. Theofficial track forecast is very similar to the previous one andalso very close to the simple and corrected consensus track modelpredictions.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of thetrack or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 his around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards willextend far from the center.