1. Life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves isexpected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San LuisPass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areasinside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surgecould penetrate up to

3. miles inland from the immediate coastlinein southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Actions to protectlife and property should be rushed to completion as water levelswill begin to rise later today.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
- East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropicalstormforce winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1015 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...812 ft Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...69 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...47 ft San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...35 ft Galveston Bay...35 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...24 ft Freeport to San Luis Pass...24 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.4 West. Laura is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue today, followed by a northnorthwestward motion tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Scale, and is forecast to continue strengthening into a category 4 hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Laura is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Buoy 42395, located just east of Laura's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a wave height of 37 feet (11 meters).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

Satellite images indicate that Laura has become a formidable hurricane since yesterday evening. Deep convection has intensified and become more symmetric, with an eye now trying to clear out. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found flight-level winds of 104 kt, along with peak SFMR values of 86 kt, which supported the 90-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory. Since that time, however, the cloud pattern has only continued to improve, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Notably, the aircraft also recorded that the extent of the hurricane-force winds have increased substantially northeast of the center. A pair of Hurricane Hunter planes should be in the area within a couple of hours.

The hurricane has intensified a remarkable 40 kt during the past 24 hours, and there are no signs it will stop soon, with shear remaining low-to-moderate over the deep warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is noticeably higher than before, so the new peak intensity will be raised to 115 kt, and some models are even a little higher. Increasing shear is expected to slightly weaken the hurricane close to landfall, so the new forecast keeps the previous 105-kt intensity near the coast. Laura will weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. In the extended range, there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a tropical cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast, instead of becoming part of a frontal system, but for now the forecast will stay extratropical at 96 hours and beyond.

Recent satellite shows that Laura has turned northwestward, now estimated at 13 kt. There are no substantial changes to the track forecast to report. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high. The models are in very good agreement on the center of Laura moving into extreme southwestern Louisiana or southeastern Texas in about 24 hours, so no changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period the weakened cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with increasing forward speed while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted southward at longer range, not too far from the latest consensus track model predictions.

It should be mentioned Laura is now a large hurricane, and wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Do not use the cone graphic for any representation of these hazards, it is just for the center uncertainty.