1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves willcause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, toIntracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.This surge could penetrate up to

4. miles inland from the immediatecoastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several daysafter the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of thehurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expectedwhere Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds andwidespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portionsof extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, androadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday fromfar eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also leadto minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfallthreat and flash and urban flooding potential will spreadnortheastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and TennesseeValleys Friday night and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
- East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropicalstormforce winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...1520 ft Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...1015 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...1015 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...812 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...69 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...47 ft Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...13 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday morning, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Tropical storm conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread northward within the warning areas overnight.

Hurricaneforce winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Across the midMississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

Across the MidAtlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will continue on Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Laura is moving toward the northnorthwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Thursday, and a northward motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to eastnortheastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will make landfall along the southwest Louisiana coast within the next few hours and move inland within that area early Thursday. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana on Thursday, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the midMississippi Valley on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura moves inland.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) were recently reported by a National Ocean Service station at Texas Point, Texas, at Sabine Pass. A wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Cameron, Louisiana.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 939 mb (27.73 inches).

Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricaneon satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by verydeep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and theupper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while thecyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunteraircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during theevening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory. Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water, no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland, more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period, the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the westernside of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion isabout 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchangedfrom the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through aweakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next dayor two. Then the system should accelerate toward theeast-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.

Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus onthe precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfallhazards extend far from the center.