1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of thenorthern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Ricothrough today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected alongthe northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and theTurks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and couldcause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of thecentral Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecastsremain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to movenear or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impactsto portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week andthe northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Intereststhere should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to theforecast during the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- British Virgin Islands
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.5 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a generally westnorthwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters. Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast. While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco, although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track lies near the various consensus models.Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much of the guidance.

Corrected status at 96 and 120 hSurface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters. Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast. While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco, although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track lies near the various consensus models.Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much of the guidance.