1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of thethe Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical stormconditions are also expected along the northern coasts of theDominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos andsoutheastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall islikely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of thecentral Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of easternand central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecastsremain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to movenear or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impactsto the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The central Bahamas
- Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the Florida Keys later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes. Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 66.8 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally westnorthwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station located at Isla Culebrita recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Sandy Point on the Island of St. Croix recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one, moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next couple of days which should limit intensification at least through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico, warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected to be significant. This could change in the coming days however.

The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near 280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range track of Laura.