1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas and Andros Island Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Andros Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
- Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The central Bahamas
- Andros Island
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed there tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally westnorthwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Some strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas in Puerto Rico recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust to 40 mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system.Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions, and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about 280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the track guidance suite. Given the predicted track and wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.