1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue acrossportions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a few morehours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portionsof the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, thesoutheastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could causemudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, withwidespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions ofcentral and western Cuba, the central Bahamas and Andros IslandSunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
- Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The central Bahamas
- Andros Island
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay
- Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding is still possible in Puerto Rico today.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located by surface observations over southern Dominican Republic near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 70.1 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be near or over Cuba Sunday night and Monday, and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Laura is now located near the eastern portion of the DominicanRepublic, and it is producing a large area of showers andthunderstorms over much of Hispaniola and adjacent areas. The NOAAHurricane Hunters have been flying in the tropical storm thisevening and have found winds to support maintaining the initialintensity of 45 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggests thatthe pressure has fallen a little to 1003 mb, and that the center isstill quite elongated.

Laura is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. The track forecastreasoning is generally unchanged from earlier. A subtropical highpressure system is expected to build westward during the next fewdays, which should continue to steer Laura generallywest-northwestward at a fairly quick pace. This track should takethe storm across Hispaniola tonight and early Sunday and then acrossCuba late Sunday and Monday. Laura is then expected to emerge overthe eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will likely turn northwestwardand slow down some as it reaches the western side of the ridge. Themodels are in fair agreement that Laura will generally follow asimilar path to Marco when it nears the northern Gulf coast in 3 to4 days. There has been little change in the guidance this cycle,and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.This forecast is near the typically reliable TVCA and HCCAconsensus aids.

Since the tropical storm is expected to track across themountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next 36to 48 hours, little change in intensity seems like a good bet duringthat time period. However, after the storm pulls away from theislands and moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters while beingin low wind shear and high moisture conditions, strengthening seemsvery likely. Most of the better-performing intensity models showLaura making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast as ahurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightlyhigher than the previous one, and it lies roughly near the middleof the guidance suite.