1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the central Bahamas and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys onMonday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
- Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The central Bahamas
- Andros Island
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas, and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Florida Keys.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Recent data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The strongest winds are primarily occuring over water to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near Cuba. Strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Laura continues to produce a large area of deep convection to the south and southeast of the estimated center location. The center has not been easy to locate this morning, but the low-cloud motions seen in GOES-16 one-minute visible imagery, along with surface observations, suggest that the center is just west of the west coast of Haiti. Data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft that has flown a tail-Doppler radar mission along the southern and northern coasts of Hispaniola this morning found maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours while Laura moves near or over Cuba. When the center of Laura emerges over the Gulf of Mexico Monday night, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive for strengthening, and once the circulation recovers from its trek over land, deepening is anticipated. Warm water and a very favorable upper-level wind pattern are expected to allow for steady intensification until Laura reaches the northern Gulf coast, and with landfall expected between the 72 and 96 h forecast points, the system could be somewhat stronger than explicitly indicated below. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. Although the center of Laura was been difficult to track while it passed over Hispaniola, the estimated motion is west-northwestward at about 18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Laura west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance has continued to nudge southward during the first 36 hours and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly, taking the storm closer to the southern coast of Cuba. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should allow Laura to maintain a west-northwestward motion until it approaches the central Gulf, where a northwestward motion is expected to begin as the storm nears the western periphery ofthe ridge. The dynamical models have trended toward stronger ridging over the eastern Gulf, resulting in a westward shift in the guidance. The NHC track forecast has been moved westward at 72-96 hours, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track forecast at the longer range as future adjustments will likely be required, and storm hazards will extend far from the center.