1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cubatoday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, andthese rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash andurban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the DryTortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today.

2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast through the north- central Gulf Coast beginning on Wednesday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Laura and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, as storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued later today.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
- Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
- Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through today:

Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the westcentral U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into tonight across the Florida Keys.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.6 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to northnorthwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening forecast on Wednesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. An elevated observing site at Sand Key located south of Key West, Florida, has recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) has been observed at Santa Clara, Cuba, within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Laura's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat sinceyesterday, however, there has been a recent increase in convectionnear the center, and a large band over the southern periphery ofthe circulation. It appears that the combination of landinteraction, moderate northerly shear, and some dry air hascaused the change in structure. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissanceaircraft have reported several believable SFMR winds in the 45-50kt range and a minimum pressure of around 1002 kt. Based on theseobservations, the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt.

Laura is forecast to pass over the very warm water of the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of the coast of Cuba today, and some modest strengthening is possible before the center moves over the western portion of Cuba this evening. Laura is then forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight where a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable upper-level environment are expected to allow for steady strengthening. Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage over western Cuba. The regional hurricane models remain quite bullish on intensification, and the GFS and UKMET models indicate significant deepening while Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico. The statistical guidance is not as aggressive, and the NHC forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids which lie between the higher solutions of the regional models and the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Laura has been moving on a steady west-northwestward track over thepast day or so, and the initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. Thedeep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to buildwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,and this should keep Laura on a west-northwestward heading throughTuesday. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over thesouth-central United States should produce a break in the ridge overthe western Gulf of Mexico. Laura should turn northwestwardTuesday night in response to the break in the ridge, and the stormis expected to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday night.The cyclone should become embedded within the mid-latitudewesterlies by day 4, and Laura or its remnants should recurve tothe northeast and east-northeast by the end of the period.Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMETshowing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHCtrack is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward thetypically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.