1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as ahurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focuson the details of the official forecast given the typicaluncertainty in NHC's

2.to

3.day track and intensity predictions. Inaddition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend wellaway from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San LuisPass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next

4.hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areasoutside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage RiskReduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advicegiven by local officials.3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from PortBolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropicalstorm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricanewatch is in effect. Additional hurricane watches may be neededfarther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shiftstoward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected acrosscentral and western Cuba for several more hours. These rains couldcause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle Florida Keys has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West
- Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...711 ft Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...46 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...46 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...35 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...24 ft Galveston Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...24 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Cuba: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the westcentral U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to northnorthwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province inwestern Cuba around 0000 UTC with maximum winds of about 55 kt.Around that time, a wind gust of 56 kt was reported in Havana.Since then the storm has moved across western Cuba and is nowcoming off the island and over the extreme southeastern Gulf ofMexico. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate thatthe storm has become better organized with deep convectionbeginning to wrap around the center with persistent thunderstormson the south side. Data from the NOAA and Air Force HurricaneHunters indicate that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb and thatthe winds are around 55 kt.

Laura continues to move fairly steadily to the west-northwest withthe latest initial motion estimated to be 290/17 kt. The trackforecast reasoning is generally unchanged from previous discussions.Laura should continue to move west-northwestward at about the sameforward speed through Tuesday as it remains in the flow on thesouthwest side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. By earlyWednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward andthen northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by aweak trough over the south-central U.S. This motion should causethe system to make landfall in either southwestern Louisiana or theUpper Texas coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. Afterlandfall, Laura is forecast to continue moving northward beforeturning eastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in themid-latitude westerlies. Although the global models are inrelatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemblemembers, especially in the ECMWF. Therefore, confidence in thetrack forecast is still not high. The NHC track forecast isslightly to the left of the previous one, trending toward thelatest consensus aids.

The storm is starting to pull away from the western portion of Cuba,and it should be over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters for about 2days. Since Laura will have a notable amount of time over waterswith high oceanic heat while moving through a low wind shear andhigh moisture air mass, significant strengthening seems quite likelyuntil the storm makes landfall. The intensity models all show Lauramaking landfall as a hurricane, but there are differences on exactlyhow strong it will be. The NHC intensity forecast continues tostay near the consensus aids, which usually perform best, andLaura could be near major hurricane strengthen when it reaches thecoast.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of thetrack or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 his around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards willextend far from the center.