1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...17.0N 60.2W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to the border with Haiti.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- British Virgin Islands
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to the border with Haiti
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally westnorthwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near 40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these uncertainties.

With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertainbut is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainlywest-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressuresystem over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period,the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it movesaround the western periphery of the high. The official trackforecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and ison the northern side of the guidance suite.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern LeewardIslands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.