1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight.

TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a northeast to eastnortheast motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle during the next hour or two, then cross portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Georgia tonight. Mindy is then expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) manly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42039 reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 reported a minimum pressure of 1006.5 mb (29.72) as the center passed nearby,

Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt.

The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes vertically shallow.

Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough shortly thereafter.