1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia near the center of Mindy.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of the Ochlockonee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Ochlockonee River to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropicalstorm force winds are expected within the warning area for the next few hours. Tropicalstormforce winds especially in gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia through this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through this morning.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastnortheastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move across the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia overnight and into the Atlantic this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upperlevel winds.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. Sustained winds of 43 mph (68 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) were measured at an observing site near Shell Point, Florida, a couple of hours ago. A wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h) was recently reported at Tallahassee, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida, near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along the shoreline of Apalachee Bay. The intensity is held at 40 kt based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an elevated tower south of Apalachicola. The central pressure has been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola area. It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation.

The initial motion is 055/17. A general east-northeastward motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow. The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while the center of Mindy straddles the coast. Weakening should occur as the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase in westerly vertical wind shear. By the time the cyclone reaches the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system continue to weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to dissipate after 72 h.