1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely toproduce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portionsof the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulfof Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening isanticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf ofMexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly howstrong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts itwill produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress ofthis system over the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
- Bay Islands of Honduras
- Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
- Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.

Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the southcentral Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center ofthe broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at 4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed, which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection becomes more persistent.

The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the NOAA-HCCA corrected model.Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as much as previously expected, which has significant implications in the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan, followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By 120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the guidance envelope.