1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
- Bay Islands of Honduras
- Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
- Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and is forecast to continue through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coast of northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the southcentral Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Recent METOP-A/B ASCAT overpasses and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the depression's circulation is not well-defined. In fact, the scatterometer data revealed multiple swirls, particularly, one newly developed circulation near a recent strong burst of deep convection near the coast of Honduras. Highest sustained winds from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt. For this advisory, the initial position is an uncertain centroid position of the multiple surface centers and the intensity is held at 30 kt. A 53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this morning and will hopefully paint a clearer picture on the depression's location.

Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours, especially in the north portion of the depression, so gradual strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time, some weakening is forecast while the cyclone traverses the peninsula. The system is expected to enter the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico around the 60 hr period and restrengthen through the remainder of the forecast. Global models, however, are indicating increasing south-southwesterly shear as the cyclone enters the northwest portion of the gulf which could prevent it from reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. For now, the forecast will reflect a low-end hurricane making landfall, similar to the HCCA intensity model. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on a compromise of the various multi-model consensus aids.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered generally northwestward during the next few days by a western extension of the atlantic subtropical ridge that stretches westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should result in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, with the system entering the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. I think it's worth noting that both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.

The NHC forecast track is again adjusted a little to the right of the previous forecast and lies close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus solutions.