1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts ofNicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected todiminish today.

2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected tobe near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast ofthe Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watchand a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of thatregion.

3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf ofMexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening isanticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf ofMexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly howstrong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it willproduce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests inthat area should continue monitoring the progress of this systemover the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bay Islands of Honduras
- Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands of Honduras today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into thedepression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixesthat were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likelymultiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. Awell-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has becomeapparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of theaircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we canbe sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center.Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicatethat the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is stilllacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to thenorth near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast.

The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along thesouthwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and towarda deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestwardmotion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period,with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cycloneapproaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down abit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecastis therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. Afterthat time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHCforecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer tothe GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios.

The structure of the depression aside, the environment stillappears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches theYucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currentlyless than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degreesCelsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the officialforecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near theupper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRFsolutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. Aftersome weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensificationis likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclonecould become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA,HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, andthe official forecast follows the trend of all the intensityguidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches thesoutheastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. Thisforecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged tocontinue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next coupleof days.