1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and Tropical storm conditions are expected with the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast.

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern Louisiana coast by afternoon.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Port Aransas, Texas to Port O'Connor, Texas including Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port O'Connor Texas to Sabine Pass
- Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Port O'Connor to Freeport Texas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Port Aransas to Port O'Connor
- North of Freeport to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across the upper Texas coastal areas into Wednesday. Lifethreatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southerncentral Louisiana and southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts near 10 inches are expected into Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated major river flooding exists across the entire region especially in smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX...35 ft Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay...35 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...24 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...13 ft Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...13 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...13 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...13 ft Corpus Christi Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area across the central and upper Texas coasts through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area for the next few hours.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Nicholas made landfall near 1230 AM CDT (0530 UTC) on eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles (15 km) westsouthwest of Sargent Beach, Texas. At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicholas was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 95.7 West. Nicholas is moving toward the northnortheast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late today and an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is expected to move slowly over southeastern Texas today and tonight, and over southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as Nicholas moves over land.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A station at San Luis Pass, Texas recently reported a 1minute sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) gusting to 67 mph (107 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based on reconnaissance dropsonde data.

Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas, reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt. Based on this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued. No additional strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall, and gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

Nicholas is moving north-northeastward, or around 020/10 kt. The system is currently moving through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved inland, the ridge is forecast to weaken and leave Nicholas in an area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and slow to a crawl near southwestern Louisiana. The official forecast is slower than the previous one, but not as slow as the new model consensus.

Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours, with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously. Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land, with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast.

The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so. Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday as it loses any significant steering. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts, most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.