There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to affect portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this evening, causing lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will continue to affect portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina through this evening, causing lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the eastnortheast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the North Carolina coast today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although the depression still has a small chance to become a tropical storm later today, no significant changes in strength are expected during the next couple of days. The system could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the eastnortheast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the North Carolina coast today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although the depression still has a small chance to become a tropical storm later today, no significant changes in strength are expected during the next couple of days. The system could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
Deep convection remains displaced to the east and southeast of the depression's low-level center due to increasing west-northwesterly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, with no appreciable structural changes having occurred since last evening's ASCAT pass, which showed 25-30 kt winds. The initial motion is toward the northeast, or 050/11 kt, with the depression becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. Forecast guidance agrees that the cyclone will turn east-northeastward and then eastward during the next 2-3 days, moving farther out into the Atlantic, although there is greater-than-normal spread among the track models mainly due to speed differences. In particular, the ECMWF is one of the fastest models, while the GFS and UKMET hang the cyclone back to the west a little longer. Since many of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are closer to the faster model solutions, the NHC track forecast leans toward the quicker side of things. UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the shear has increased to 20-25 kt, and it's only expected to get stronger from here. Some slight strengthening of the depression can't be ruled out during the next 12-24 hours while the shear vector is aligned with the storm motion, but by this time tomorrow the shear is likely to be as strong as 35-45 kt out of the northwest. Therefore, little change in strength is now indicated in the official forecast for the next day or two. The shear magnitude is expected to peak in about 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to be a remnant low at that point, if it hasn't become one already. The GFS dissipates the low in about 48 hours, but since the other models hang onto it a little bit longer, the NHC forecast shows dissipation by day 5.
Deep convection remains displaced to the east and southeast of the depression's low-level center due to increasing west-northwesterly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, with no appreciable structural changes having occurred since last evening's ASCAT pass, which showed 25-30 kt winds. The initial motion is toward the northeast, or 050/11 kt, with the depression becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. Forecast guidance agrees that the cyclone will turn east-northeastward and then eastward during the next 2-3 days, moving farther out into the Atlantic, although there is greater-than-normal spread among the track models mainly due to speed differences. In particular, the ECMWF is one of the fastest models, while the GFS and UKMET hang the cyclone back to the west a little longer. Since many of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are closer to the faster model solutions, the NHC track forecast leans toward the quicker side of things. UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the shear has increased to 20-25 kt, and it's only expected to get stronger from here. Some slight strengthening of the depression can't be ruled out during the next 12-24 hours while the shear vector is aligned with the storm motion, but by this time tomorrow the shear is likely to be as strong as 35-45 kt out of the northwest. Therefore, little change in strength is now indicated in the official forecast for the next day or two. The shear magnitude is expected to peak in about 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to be a remnant low at that point, if it hasn't become one already. The GFS dissipates the low in about 48 hours, but since the other models hang onto it a little bit longer, the NHC forecast shows dissipation by day 5.
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