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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Omar
LOCATED
385 MI ENE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
30 MPH
PRESSURE
1006 MB
MOVING
ESE AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020
OMAR FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
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DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 59.1 West. The depression is moving toward the eastsoutheast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the east is expected late tonight with a slowing of the forward speed. A turn to the northeast is expected by Friday night, followed by an increase in forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Omar should degenerate into a remnant low Friday morning then dissipate over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 59.1 West. The depression is moving toward the eastsoutheast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the east is expected late tonight with a slowing of the forward speed. A turn to the northeast is expected by Friday night, followed by an increase in forward speed on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Omar should degenerate into a remnant low Friday morning then dissipate over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. If the current state of the tropical depression persists through much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models.

The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids.

The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. If the current state of the tropical depression persists through much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models.

The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids.

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