There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
None
None
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 70.0 West. Omar is moving toward the eastnortheast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the east is forecast to occur Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected through Wednesday. A weakening trend should begin Wednesday night, and Omar is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 70.0 West. Omar is moving toward the eastnortheast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the east is forecast to occur Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected through Wednesday. A weakening trend should begin Wednesday night, and Omar is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds compared to earlier today.
These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the various intensity aids. Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.
UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model diagnostics all indicate that Omar is being blasted by 40-50 kt of northwesterly shear, and yet a sizable area of deep convection has been hanging close to the low-level center for some time now. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications, Omar's initial intensity remains 35 kt. Despite the shear magnitude, Omar could maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 hours or so while the shear direction remains out of the northwest and the cyclone is over the warm Gulf Stream. During this period, the NHC forecast is close to the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. After 24 hours, Omar should begin moving over waters with lower ocean heat content, and the shear is forecast to veer more out of the north. Both of these factors are expected to cause weakening, with Omar likely to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about 2 days. Global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate ahead of a cold front by day 4, which is now shown in the NHC forecast, although the ECMWF shows this happening a day earlier. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast (070/12 kt), embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. This steering pattern is forecast to keep Omar on an east-northeastward or eastward path until it dissipates, but a breakdown of the zonal flow should cause the cyclone's forward speed to slow down gradually during the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS and ECMWF solutions, which both lie along the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds compared to earlier today.
These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the various intensity aids. Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.
UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model diagnostics all indicate that Omar is being blasted by 40-50 kt of northwesterly shear, and yet a sizable area of deep convection has been hanging close to the low-level center for some time now. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications, Omar's initial intensity remains 35 kt. Despite the shear magnitude, Omar could maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 hours or so while the shear direction remains out of the northwest and the cyclone is over the warm Gulf Stream. During this period, the NHC forecast is close to the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. After 24 hours, Omar should begin moving over waters with lower ocean heat content, and the shear is forecast to veer more out of the north. Both of these factors are expected to cause weakening, with Omar likely to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about 2 days. Global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate ahead of a cold front by day 4, which is now shown in the NHC forecast, although the ECMWF shows this happening a day earlier. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast (070/12 kt), embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. This steering pattern is forecast to keep Omar on an east-northeastward or eastward path until it dissipates, but a breakdown of the zonal flow should cause the cyclone's forward speed to slow down gradually during the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS and ECMWF solutions, which both lie along the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
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