1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 4 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds will continue across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A few tornadoes are possible through midday in central and northern Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning and early afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the Florida coast, followed by slight weakening after the cyclone moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A private weather station at Bald Point on Apalachee Bay, Florida, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Buoys just offshore the coast of west-central Florida have been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 50 mph (80 km/h) in some of the heavier squalls during the past couple of hours.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches).

Nestor has made the transition to a post-tropical extratropical cyclone. There has been no significant convection near the low-level center for more than six hours, and satellite and surface observations indicate that the cyclone's center has merged with a nearby frontal system that lies along the coast of the Florida panhandle. The overall cloud pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded low pressure system now, including a pre-frontal squall line or convergence zone a few hundred nmi east of the low. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to near 50 kt have been reported by some of the buoys and coastal marine stations over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the past few hours. The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on Doppler velocity values of 50-55 kt between 4000-6000 ft ASL located over Apalachee Bay, which approximately equals surface winds of 40-44 kt.

The now well-defined low-level center made a brief jog toward the northwest early this morning as an upper-level low passed over the larger cyclonic gyre. However, the motion since that time has been slowly eastward, and the initial motion estimate is now east-northeastward or 075/08 kt. Despite the earlier erratic motion, the latest NHC track model guidance remains in very good agreement on post-tropical Nestor moving northeastward and accelerating over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. By 48 hours, the parent upper-level low is expected to weaken and open up into a shortwave trough, and leave Nestor behind as a weakening extratropical cyclone that dissipates by 96 h east of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track was only nudged a little to the west of the previous advisory due to the more westward initial position, and lies close to an average of the deterministic 0000 UTC and 0600Z GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET model runs.

No strengthening is anticipated before Nestor moves inland later this afternoon. Some slight weakening will occur after the center moves inland, but gale-force winds are expected develop over the Atlantic waters of northeastern Florida to the Carolinas this afternoon and tonight, and across the mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal waters on Sunday. The extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days or sooner.

Given the non-tropical structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force and gale-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center today.