1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning this evening along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast from late tonight through Sunday.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to west of Navarre, Florida.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area this evening, and continue through early Saturday.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two is possible tonight through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 88.5 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

Nestor's structure has evolved quite a bit today. Since the release of the previous advisory, the center has become better defined based on data from aircraft, satellite, and surface observations, and on that basis, the system was classified as a tropical cyclone around 1800 UTC. Since that time, the center has become more separated from the area of deep convection to the east, consistent with 30-40 kt of deep-layer westerly shear analyzed by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data.

The mid/upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over southeastern Louisiana is beginning to impinge on Nestor, and the cloud pattern has become more lopsided. It would not be surprising to see Nestor take on a more subtropical appearance overnight, as the GFS and ECMWF show the upper trough becoming superimposed on the low-level circulation, with the pressure continuing to deepen and some increase in the peak winds noted in both those models. This is reflected in the 12-h intensity forecast of 55 kt. After that time, the upper-level pattern becomes less favorable and Nestor should weaken while it moves inland over the southeastern United States and becomes post-tropical. Gale-force winds are shown over the western Atlantic waters, but are not expected over land areas from 24 h onward. The global models show Nestor's circulation dissipating by 96 hours, and that is reflected in the NHC forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 050/19, but remains somewhat uncertain given the recent formation of a better defined center. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Nestor expected to move quickly northeastward ahead of the approaching upper trough and moving inland over the Florida Panhandle early Saturday. The circulation center will move across the southeastern United States before moving back offshore after 48 hours with a slower east-northeastward to eastward motion shown late in the period before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast lies a little to the right of the previous and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that dangerous storm surge and tropical storm force winds will occur along a large portion of the Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center.