1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast into early Sunday morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue through Saturday afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently reported a minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters are investigating Nestor this evening, and they have found that the minimum pressure has dropped to 996 mb, 3 mb lower than this afternoon, but they have not found higher winds yet. Based on preliminary data from both aircraft, the initial wind speed remains 50 kt. The Air Force also reported that there is a lot of lightning occurring in the thunderstorms on Nestor's east side. Nestor remains a lopsided tropical storm, with very intense deep convection extending well to the east of the center with only small areas of convection near and to the west of the center. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to strong westerly wind shear associated with a nearby shortwave trough. Doppler radar imagery indicates that rain bands are now spreading inland over much of the eastern portions of the Gulf coast, and surface observations show the winds increasing near the coast, but they are still not quite at tropical storm strength.

Water vapor satellite images show that the shortwave trough is almost co-located with Nestor, which is likely part of the reason why the minimum pressure has fallen. Even though it is not explicitly reflected in the forecast, Nestor could strengthen a little before the storm makes landfall. However, significant intensification seems unlikely as the shortwave trough is expected to bypass the cyclone soon, leaving the storm in a less favorable environment of upper-level confluence and drier air. After landfall, weakening is forecast and the models suggest that Nestor should lose its tropical characteristics on Saturday when it tracks across the southeast U.S. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days.

The tropical storm is moving quickly northeastward at about 20 kt. The models are in good agreement that this general motion should continue for the next couple of days, taking the center of the storm inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning and across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later Saturday and Sunday. The weakening system is expected to slow down and turn eastward over the western Atlantic early next week before it merges with a cold front. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models.

Given the structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center through Saturday.