1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will continue through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A few tornadoes are possible through midday in northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0 West. Nestor is expected to move toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later this morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast, but is forecast to weaken after it moves inland. The cyclone is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Nestor is rapidly losing the few tropical characteristics that it once had. The cloud pattern consists of a large circulation of low clouds with a comma-shape convective band well to the east of the circulation. This band is already over a large portion of the Florida peninsula. The center of the system or the area of minimum pressure could be anywhere within this gyre, and the precise location is uncertain. Surrounding data and ASCAT measurements suggest that the winds have decreased to 45 kt.

All indications are that no significant strengthening is anticipated before the broad circulation moves inland later today, and guidance suggests that Nestor will lose its tropical characteristics while moving across the southeastern United States. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days or sooner.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly uncertain. It appears that cyclone has slowed down but it should resume a motion toward northeast or 045 degrees at about 15 kt. Most of the track models are in good agreement that this general motion should continue, and the broad circulation will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later today and across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later tonight and Sunday.

Given the non-tropical appearance of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center today.