FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Peter
LOCATED
170 MI ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
Peter battling increasingly hostile wind shear.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.

RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 60.9 West. Peter is moving toward the west northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 60.9 West. Peter is moving toward the west northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 30 kt is pummeling Peter this morning. Just like yesterday morning, the low-level center of the storm is pulling away from the deep convection and is now displaced greater than 80 n mi. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Peter this morning and has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and several SFMR values of 40-45 kt, supporting keeping the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

Peter refuses to slow down, and for the past several hours has been moving 290/14 kt. This west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States later this week. The model track guidance has shifted slightly left for the 24-72 h time frames, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that direction as well. Otherwise, the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one.

An upper-level trough to the west of Peter is forecast to remain near the cyclone for the next few days, keeping the storm in a high-shear environment. Therefore, despite being over warm waters the storm is forecast to slowly weaken. If Peter survives the next 72 h, there could be a window of opportunity late in the forecast period for some modest strengthening as the cyclone would have lifted to the north of the upper trough. It should be noted that a vast majority of the GFS ensembles show Peter dissipating later this week as the system opens into a wave. This scenario is plausible, especially if deep convection fails to persist near the center of the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast assumes Peter survives, and closely follows the various intensity consensus solutions.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 30 kt is pummeling Peter this morning. Just like yesterday morning, the low-level center of the storm is pulling away from the deep convection and is now displaced greater than 80 n mi. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Peter this morning and has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and several SFMR values of 40-45 kt, supporting keeping the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

Peter refuses to slow down, and for the past several hours has been moving 290/14 kt. This west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States later this week. The model track guidance has shifted slightly left for the 24-72 h time frames, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that direction as well. Otherwise, the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one.

An upper-level trough to the west of Peter is forecast to remain near the cyclone for the next few days, keeping the storm in a high-shear environment. Therefore, despite being over warm waters the storm is forecast to slowly weaken. If Peter survives the next 72 h, there could be a window of opportunity late in the forecast period for some modest strengthening as the cyclone would have lifted to the north of the upper trough. It should be noted that a vast majority of the GFS ensembles show Peter dissipating later this week as the system opens into a wave. This scenario is plausible, especially if deep convection fails to persist near the center of the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast assumes Peter survives, and closely follows the various intensity consensus solutions.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.

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