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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 38.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system's east side. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual weakening seems likely. Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold on to the system for a while longer.

The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough. The models are in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds with no significant convection, with an earlier burst dissipating during the last few hours. Recently received scatterometer data show 25-30 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The cyclone remains in an environment of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next 2-3 days, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during this time. However, confidence in the timing of when the system will stop producing organized convection is still low. The new intensity forecast calls for Rose to degenerate into a remnant low between 60-72 h, but it is possible this could happen earlier.

The initial motion is now 305/8 kt. The depression is expected to turn northward in 24-36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. By 48-60 h, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic. Based on the initial position and motion, the first 36 h of the forecast track are shifted a little to the west of the previous track. After that time, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track.<