There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry mid-level air has taken their toll on the system. Although Rose appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the system is over warm waters and some convection could return overnight. If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in the official forecast. The remnant low is forecast to continue to gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by the GFS.

Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. The cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the east-central Atlantic. The latest guidance envelope has again shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids.

Rose has withered away. The cyclone has not produced organized deep convection for nearly 24 hours now, and therefore, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of the remnant low is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data.

Rose is moving northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a northeast to east motion as the shallow system moves in the low-level flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The remnant low is expected to persist for a couple of days and could produce intermittent bursts of deep convection. However, west-northwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air should prevent the convection from organizing.

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php