FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rose
LOCATED
925 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1008 MB
MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021
Rose going through a rough patch.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 36.9 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 36.9 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the larger mean circulation. A pair of recent scatterometer passes indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt on this advisory.

The storm's environment is no bed of roses during the next several days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest this morning at about 12 kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a mid-latitude trough is anticipated to steer Rose faster to the northeast or east-northeast by the weekend, which should cause the weak tropical cyclone to open up into a trough towards the end of the forecast. While there are some speed differences among the models, the latest guidance suite is similar to the last forecast, so no significant changes were made to the NHC track prediction.

The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the larger mean circulation. A pair of recent scatterometer passes indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt on this advisory.

The storm's environment is no bed of roses during the next several days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest this morning at about 12 kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a mid-latitude trough is anticipated to steer Rose faster to the northeast or east-northeast by the weekend, which should cause the weak tropical cyclone to open up into a trough towards the end of the forecast. While there are some speed differences among the models, the latest guidance suite is similar to the last forecast, so no significant changes were made to the NHC track prediction.

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