FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rose
LOCATED
1000 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1008 MB
MOVING
NW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021
Rose holding on as a tropical storm.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 37.7 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 37.7 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Shear continues to disrupt Rose's deep convection, with only a small cluster remaining in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Dvorak estimates support holding the intensity at 35 kt for one more advisory, and hopefully the evening scatterometer passes will get a good look at the cyclone's wind field.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest, now about 10 kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance has shifted westward during this time, perhaps due to a weaker Rose not feeling as much of the southwesterly flow aloft. This westward shift in the track also puts Rose in a position to either get shunted east like the ECMWF solution, or uprooted more to the northeast at long range similar to the GFS. Given the recent and large model changes since the last cycle, this forecast conservatively moves westward toward the model mean at most time ranges, not too far from a 50/50 blend of the GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX).

The cyclone has a difficult environment ahead, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. All of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression fairly soon, and it could even wither into a remnant low tomorrow or Thursday in the harsh conditions. However, the shear could let up just enough, along with some upper divergence from an upcoming trough interaction, to continue to produce deep convection for a few days. This isn't an easy forecast because some of the guidance actually re-intensifies Rose due to the trough, while other guidance completely dissipates the tropical cyclone. Given the considerable uncertainty, I've kept the previous forecast the same at long range until more clarity emerges in the model suite.

Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Rose this evening with the remaining deep convection becoming further separated from the low-level center. Unfortunately Rose fell within the gaps of the ASCAT satellite instruments this evening, so there has been no recent scatterometer data. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have continued to decline, and these subjective estimates support lowering Rose's initial intensity to 30 kt. The environment ahead of the cyclone is expected to remain quite hostile with moderate westerly to northwesterly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Rose will continue to produce bursts of convection over the eastern portion of its circulation during the next few days which could allow it remain a tropical cyclone during that time. Alternatively, the shear and dry air could cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low much sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little overall change in strength during the next couple of days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low by day 3.

Rose continues to decelerate, now moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The depression should remain on a slow northwestward heading around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward, and then recurve northeastward ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The dynamical guidance envelope remained fairly steady this cycle and no significant change was made to the previous official forecast.

Shear continues to disrupt Rose's deep convection, with only a small cluster remaining in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Dvorak estimates support holding the intensity at 35 kt for one more advisory, and hopefully the evening scatterometer passes will get a good look at the cyclone's wind field.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest, now about 10 kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance has shifted westward during this time, perhaps due to a weaker Rose not feeling as much of the southwesterly flow aloft. This westward shift in the track also puts Rose in a position to either get shunted east like the ECMWF solution, or uprooted more to the northeast at long range similar to the GFS. Given the recent and large model changes since the last cycle, this forecast conservatively moves westward toward the model mean at most time ranges, not too far from a 50/50 blend of the GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX).

The cyclone has a difficult environment ahead, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. All of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression fairly soon, and it could even wither into a remnant low tomorrow or Thursday in the harsh conditions. However, the shear could let up just enough, along with some upper divergence from an upcoming trough interaction, to continue to produce deep convection for a few days. This isn't an easy forecast because some of the guidance actually re-intensifies Rose due to the trough, while other guidance completely dissipates the tropical cyclone. Given the considerable uncertainty, I've kept the previous forecast the same at long range until more clarity emerges in the model suite.

Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Rose this evening with the remaining deep convection becoming further separated from the low-level center. Unfortunately Rose fell within the gaps of the ASCAT satellite instruments this evening, so there has been no recent scatterometer data. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have continued to decline, and these subjective estimates support lowering Rose's initial intensity to 30 kt. The environment ahead of the cyclone is expected to remain quite hostile with moderate westerly to northwesterly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Rose will continue to produce bursts of convection over the eastern portion of its circulation during the next few days which could allow it remain a tropical cyclone during that time. Alternatively, the shear and dry air could cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low much sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little overall change in strength during the next couple of days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low by day 3.

Rose continues to decelerate, now moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The depression should remain on a slow northwestward heading around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward, and then recurve northeastward ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The dynamical guidance envelope remained fairly steady this cycle and no significant change was made to the previous official forecast.

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