FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rose
LOCATED
450 MI W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
NW AT 16 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
Rose moving northwestward with no change in strength.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 31.1 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, upper level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 31.1 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, upper level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The center of Rose has been very difficult to locate in infrared satellite imagery this evening. However, an earlier ASCAT-A overpass as well as an SSMIS microwave image from around of the time of the previous advisory were both helpful in establishing the initial position, motion, and intensity of the tropical cyclone. Rose's center is located on the eastern edge of the main convective mass due to some southeasterly shear. The ASCAT ambiguity data revealed an area of 30-35 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, so the wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 form both SAB and TAFB.

The ASCAT data indicated that Rose is located slightly west of the earlier estimates, and the initial motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move generally northwestward during the next several days around the southwestern and western portions of a subtropical ridge located over the far eastern Atlantic. After day 4, a strong mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to turn northward. The dynamical models are in reasonably good agreement through about 60-72 hours, but there is growing east-to-west (cross-track) spread after that time. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous advisory, and lies close to the various consensus models in deference to the increasing model spread late in the period.

Rose has about 24 hours over warm waters and in low vertical wind shear conditions in which to strengthen, and the new NHC intensity forecast for that time is unchanged from before. After 24 hours, increasing westerly shear is likely to result in some gradual weakening. A further increase in shear is anticipated by day 3 as Rose approaches the aforementioned trough. This is likely to result in additional weakening, and Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4. Some of the global model guidance suggests that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and it is possible that Rose will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

The center of Rose has been very difficult to locate in infrared satellite imagery this evening. However, an earlier ASCAT-A overpass as well as an SSMIS microwave image from around of the time of the previous advisory were both helpful in establishing the initial position, motion, and intensity of the tropical cyclone. Rose's center is located on the eastern edge of the main convective mass due to some southeasterly shear. The ASCAT ambiguity data revealed an area of 30-35 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, so the wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 form both SAB and TAFB.

The ASCAT data indicated that Rose is located slightly west of the earlier estimates, and the initial motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move generally northwestward during the next several days around the southwestern and western portions of a subtropical ridge located over the far eastern Atlantic. After day 4, a strong mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to turn northward. The dynamical models are in reasonably good agreement through about 60-72 hours, but there is growing east-to-west (cross-track) spread after that time. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous advisory, and lies close to the various consensus models in deference to the increasing model spread late in the period.

Rose has about 24 hours over warm waters and in low vertical wind shear conditions in which to strengthen, and the new NHC intensity forecast for that time is unchanged from before. After 24 hours, increasing westerly shear is likely to result in some gradual weakening. A further increase in shear is anticipated by day 3 as Rose approaches the aforementioned trough. This is likely to result in additional weakening, and Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4. Some of the global model guidance suggests that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and it is possible that Rose will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

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