FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rose
LOCATED
620 MI WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
NW AT 16 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
Rose might not bloom into a much stronger storm .
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose could weaken into a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose could weaken into a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm. The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low with all the thunderstorm activity).

There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast.

The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is still expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range.

While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm. The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low with all the thunderstorm activity).

There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast.

The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is still expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range.

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