1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 21.5 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Tropical Depression Eighteen is very near tropical storm strength. Satellite images show banding features gradually organizing on the west side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds around or slightly above 30 kt in the bands to the northwest of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are lower, however. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, but it seems very likely that the depression will become a tropical storm later today.The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A subtropical ridge situated to the north of the system is expected to build westward across the eastern Atlantic during the next 3 or 4 days. This steering pattern should keep the system on a general west-northwestward course during that time. By the weekend, the depression will likely be moving into a weakness in the ridge, which should cause a turn to the northwest. The models are in good agreement during the next few days, but there is increasing spread in the guidance by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the various consensus models.The depression will likely strengthen during the next few days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, relatively warm waters, and a moist airmass. There will likely be an increase in shear by the end of the week and this weekend, which should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce some weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model guidance.