Florida Storms Icon
FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rene
LOCATED
675 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1003 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020
RENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion toward the westnorthwest is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion toward the westnorthwest is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Rene remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with modest mid-/upper-level easterly vertical wind shear of 12-15 kt undercutting the otherwise favorable outflow layer. The combination of the shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air have caused the convective pattern to continue to fluctuate since the previous advisory. Although a recent burst of deep convection has again pulsed near and to he west of the center, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 09/2305Z ASCAT-A overpass indicating barely 34 kt winds in the northwest quadrant. The 34-kt wind radius was also expanded in that quadrant based on the ASCAT wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward motion or 285/11 kt. Under the influence of a mid-level ridge, Rene is expected to continue moving west-northward over the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around 40W-45W longitude, which will be partly induced by Tropical Storm Paulette's circulation, causing Rene to slow down and turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest on 3-4 days. By day 5, Rene's northward motion is forecast to be blocked significantly by a building ridge to the north of the cyclone as TS Paulette moves farther away. It is possible that Rene could stall or even make a small looping motion if the storm gets trapped within the much larger ridge. The new NHC forecast is to the left or south of the previous advisory track, but not as far left as the consensus models or the preponderance of the remaining guidance. Rene's upper-level outflow is forecast to remain intact for the next 60 h or so, which would should allow for at least gradual strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast by both the GFS and the ECMWF models to decrease to near zero in the 36-48 h time frame, and that is when Rene should be able to take advantage of marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5C and modest mid-level humidity conditions, and obtain hurricane status in 48-60 h. Thereafter, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to induce gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over warmer SSTs of 27-28C. The official intensity forecast is similar to the GFS model intensity forecast, and lies below the simple consensus model IVCN and the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE.

Rene remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with modest mid-/upper-level easterly vertical wind shear of 12-15 kt undercutting the otherwise favorable outflow layer. The combination of the shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air have caused the convective pattern to continue to fluctuate since the previous advisory. Although a recent burst of deep convection has again pulsed near and to he west of the center, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 09/2305Z ASCAT-A overpass indicating barely 34 kt winds in the northwest quadrant. The 34-kt wind radius was also expanded in that quadrant based on the ASCAT wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward motion or 285/11 kt. Under the influence of a mid-level ridge, Rene is expected to continue moving west-northward over the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around 40W-45W longitude, which will be partly induced by Tropical Storm Paulette's circulation, causing Rene to slow down and turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest on 3-4 days. By day 5, Rene's northward motion is forecast to be blocked significantly by a building ridge to the north of the cyclone as TS Paulette moves farther away. It is possible that Rene could stall or even make a small looping motion if the storm gets trapped within the much larger ridge. The new NHC forecast is to the left or south of the previous advisory track, but not as far left as the consensus models or the preponderance of the remaining guidance. Rene's upper-level outflow is forecast to remain intact for the next 60 h or so, which would should allow for at least gradual strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast by both the GFS and the ECMWF models to decrease to near zero in the 36-48 h time frame, and that is when Rene should be able to take advantage of marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5C and modest mid-level humidity conditions, and obtain hurricane status in 48-60 h. Thereafter, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to induce gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over warmer SSTs of 27-28C. The official intensity forecast is similar to the GFS model intensity forecast, and lies below the simple consensus model IVCN and the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram