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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rene
LOCATED
925 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1002 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020
RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 37.6 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northwestward motion at slower forward speed is forecast Saturday night and Sunday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 37.6 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northwestward motion at slower forward speed is forecast Saturday night and Sunday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Microwave satellite images from late this afternoon and evening shows that the center of Rene is located slightly northeast of the main convective mass. This appears to be due to some easterly flow that is undercutting the outflow layer. Dvorak CI numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain 3.0 (45 kt) but the SAB T-number has decreased slightly, and a recent ASCAT overpass suggests that the winds are not as strong as previously estimated. The ASCAT data revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity has been adjusted to 40 kt, which could be a little generous. The upper-level wind pattern is expected to become favorable for strengthening while the cyclone moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow for some modest strengthening during that time, but the statistical guidance is not as bullish as before. Therefore the intensity forecast has been lowered slightly, and if strengthening does not occur soon additional downward adjustments to the intensity prediction may be needed. By 60 h, Rene is forecast to move into an area of strong west-northwesterly shear, which is expected to weaken the cyclone during the latter portion of the forecast period. Rene continues moving west-northwestward with a motion of 290/10 kt. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic and Rene is forecast to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward over the next few days. Later in the period, a ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the tropical cyclone and Rene's forward motion is expected to slow considerably early next week. There is a fair amount of model spread by 96 and 120 h, with some of the global models taking Rene more northeastward during that time. The NHC forecast continues to lie close to the various consensus aids, and indicates a fairly slow forward speed on days 3-5.

Microwave satellite images from late this afternoon and evening shows that the center of Rene is located slightly northeast of the main convective mass. This appears to be due to some easterly flow that is undercutting the outflow layer. Dvorak CI numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain 3.0 (45 kt) but the SAB T-number has decreased slightly, and a recent ASCAT overpass suggests that the winds are not as strong as previously estimated. The ASCAT data revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity has been adjusted to 40 kt, which could be a little generous. The upper-level wind pattern is expected to become favorable for strengthening while the cyclone moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow for some modest strengthening during that time, but the statistical guidance is not as bullish as before. Therefore the intensity forecast has been lowered slightly, and if strengthening does not occur soon additional downward adjustments to the intensity prediction may be needed. By 60 h, Rene is forecast to move into an area of strong west-northwesterly shear, which is expected to weaken the cyclone during the latter portion of the forecast period. Rene continues moving west-northwestward with a motion of 290/10 kt. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic and Rene is forecast to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward over the next few days. Later in the period, a ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the tropical cyclone and Rene's forward motion is expected to slow considerably early next week. There is a fair amount of model spread by 96 and 120 h, with some of the global models taking Rene more northeastward during that time. The NHC forecast continues to lie close to the various consensus aids, and indicates a fairly slow forward speed on days 3-5.

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