Florida Storms Icon
FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rene
LOCATED
985 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1002 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020
RENE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 38.5 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northnorthwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 38.5 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northnorthwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

An AMSR2-GM1 microwave pass revealed that Rene's surface center is farther separated from the shrinking deep convection. The 0000 UTC FV3 and ECMWF model soundings indicate that east-southeasterly 30-35 kt shear near 300 mb is temporarily undercutting the diffluent southerly flow aloft. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt and is based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimates yielding 39 kt.

The shear is expected to relax during the next 36 to 48 hours which should allow for gradual intensification. By mid-period, Rene is forecast to move into an area of increasing west-northwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. It's worth noting that the ECMWF and the FV3 Decay SHIPS show very little strengthening through the period and it appears to be due to the cyclone moving into an even more inhibiting thermodynamic environment, in addition to the aforementioned shear. In fact, the relative humidity in the mid portions of the atmospheric is less than 49 percent beyond day 3. The NHC forecast sides with the various intensity consensus models and is above the statistical-dynamical guidance. Rene continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt within the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending from western Africa to the eastern Atlantic. A turn toward the northwest on Saturday, followed by a north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Early next week, a subtropical ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene, in response to Tropical Storm Paulette moving northeastward over the northern central Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to begin a southwestward to west-southwestward drift through the end of the period. The official track forecast is close to the previous advisory through day 4, then it's nudged a little south to conform with the HCCA and TVCA multi-model aids.

An AMSR2-GM1 microwave pass revealed that Rene's surface center is farther separated from the shrinking deep convection. The 0000 UTC FV3 and ECMWF model soundings indicate that east-southeasterly 30-35 kt shear near 300 mb is temporarily undercutting the diffluent southerly flow aloft. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt and is based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimates yielding 39 kt.

The shear is expected to relax during the next 36 to 48 hours which should allow for gradual intensification. By mid-period, Rene is forecast to move into an area of increasing west-northwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. It's worth noting that the ECMWF and the FV3 Decay SHIPS show very little strengthening through the period and it appears to be due to the cyclone moving into an even more inhibiting thermodynamic environment, in addition to the aforementioned shear. In fact, the relative humidity in the mid portions of the atmospheric is less than 49 percent beyond day 3. The NHC forecast sides with the various intensity consensus models and is above the statistical-dynamical guidance. Rene continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt within the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending from western Africa to the eastern Atlantic. A turn toward the northwest on Saturday, followed by a north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Early next week, a subtropical ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene, in response to Tropical Storm Paulette moving northeastward over the northern central Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to begin a southwestward to west-southwestward drift through the end of the period. The official track forecast is close to the previous advisory through day 4, then it's nudged a little south to conform with the HCCA and TVCA multi-model aids.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram