
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
None.
None.
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 39.9 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the northnorthwest with decreasing forward speed on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 39.9 West. Rene is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the northnorthwest with decreasing forward speed on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have developed over the western part of the circulation. The cause of the system's decline is not clear. One negative environmental factor could be dry air, since the SHIPS output based on the GFS model shows mid-level relative humidities of 50-55 percent. Using a blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS gives a rather uncertain advisory intensity of 35 kt. Since the cyclone should remain over waters of 26.5 deg C or warmer and the shear is not expected to increase much during the next day or two, some re-intensification is expected. Based on the current state of Rene, the official intensity forecast is revised downward to show less strengthening through 48 hr compared to the previous predictions. By the latter part of the forecast period, increasing northwesterly shear should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is above most of the intensity guidance. The latest center fixes give a slightly faster west-northwestward motion of 290/11 kt. Rene should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone for the next couple of days. Then, a high pressure area building to the north and northwest of the cyclone should induce a slowing of the forward speed and a turn toward the left. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and closely aligned with the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.
Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have developed over the western part of the circulation. The cause of the system's decline is not clear. One negative environmental factor could be dry air, since the SHIPS output based on the GFS model shows mid-level relative humidities of 50-55 percent. Using a blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS gives a rather uncertain advisory intensity of 35 kt. Since the cyclone should remain over waters of 26.5 deg C or warmer and the shear is not expected to increase much during the next day or two, some re-intensification is expected. Based on the current state of Rene, the official intensity forecast is revised downward to show less strengthening through 48 hr compared to the previous predictions. By the latter part of the forecast period, increasing northwesterly shear should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is above most of the intensity guidance. The latest center fixes give a slightly faster west-northwestward motion of 290/11 kt. Rene should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone for the next couple of days. Then, a high pressure area building to the north and northwest of the cyclone should induce a slowing of the forward speed and a turn toward the left. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and closely aligned with the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.
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