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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rene
LOCATED
1345 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1004 MB
MOVING
NW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 43.5 West. Rene is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A slower northwest to northnorthwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the weekend, but some weakening is predicted to occur early next week.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 43.5 West. Rene is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A slower northwest to northnorthwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the weekend, but some weakening is predicted to occur early next week.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm. Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day period.

Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to 24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant changes to the official forecaster were required.

Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm. Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day period.

Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to 24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant changes to the official forecaster were required.

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