1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions acrossportions of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning and afternoon. ATropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the CaboVerde Islands through this afternoon.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the remainder of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM CVT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 24.0 West. Rene is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward the west to westnorthwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central Cabo Verde Islands this morning and over the western Cabo Verde Islands this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. Sal, Cabo Verde Islands, recently reported sustained winds of 32 mph (52 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Convection has noticeably waned during the past few hours as Rene's center moved directly over Boa Vista island between 07/2200 UTC and 08/0000 UTC. The highest observed wind speed thus far has been a 10-minute average wind of 25 kt at Sal/GVAC. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35 kt from TAFB to 30 kt from SAB. A 07/2323 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated peak winds of 27 kt, but land obscuration likely has resulted in some missed higher wind speeds. For now, the intensity will remain at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A westward motion is expected today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. On days 4 ad 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance appears to have stabilized on the latest set of model runs and, thus, the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the TVCA and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The intensity forecast was held steady for the next 12 h or so until Rene clears the negative influence of the mountainous Cabo Verde Islands. It's possible that Rene could even weaken by the time it passes the western Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter, however, environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane on day 3. By days 4 and 5, an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to induce a weakening trend. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA intensity consensus models, and the GFS model.