CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 27.9 West. Rene is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward the west or westnorthwest is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt. The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has been discontinued.

Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear, which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely follows the IVCN model.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models.